2026 Midterms: Prediction Market Odds
Daily prices from Polymarket and Kalshi over the last 6 months. Election Day is Nov 3, 2026.
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We check Polymarket and Kalshi once a day and email you when House control, Senate control, or a key race moves past your threshold.
House control
Chance Democrats win the House
Polymarket 92.5%Kalshi 90%
Senate control
Chance Democrats win the Senate
Polymarket 67.5%Kalshi 62%
Key Senate races
Democrats need to win 17 of 35 Senate races to control the Senate, a net gain of 4 seats for a 51-seat majority.
Maine Senate
Chance Troy Jackson (D) beats Susan Collins (R)
Polymarket 67%Kalshi 58%
Iowa Senate
Chance Josh Turek (D) beats Ashley Hinson (R)
Polymarket 42.5%Kalshi 41%
Texas Senate
Chance James Talarico (D) beats Ken Paxton (R)
Polymarket 66.5%Kalshi 64%
Michigan Senate
Chance Abdul El-Sayed (D) beats Mike Rogers (R)
Polymarket 71.5%Kalshi 67%
North Carolina Senate
Chance Roy Cooper (D) beats Michael Whatley (R)
Polymarket 96.8%Kalshi 95.3%
Georgia Senate
Chance Jon Ossoff (D) beats Mike Collins (R)
Polymarket 96.3%Kalshi 95.4%
Prices are trader-set probabilities, not polls. Data updates once a day.